A Soviet spacecraft launched a half-century ago called Kosmos 482 has been orbiting the Earth for decades and is at last expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere this coming weekend.
The rogue probe is now in its "final death plunge." It's more likely that it will splash down in a body of water than land on the ground, says Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Center for Astrophysics at Harvard & Smithsonian.
"There's a not-trivial chance that it could hit somewhere where it damages property, and there's a small chance — but it's like one in thousands — that it could hurt someone," he told NPR's All Things Considered.
There's also the possibility that the thousand-pound, meter-wide spherical lander burns up as it reenters Earth's atmosphere, but McDowell thinks that's unlikely.
"Because it has a heat shield and it was designed to survive the rigors of Venus' atmosphere, what I expect is instead of burning up and melting, it will reenter essentially undamaged," he said.
According to NASA, Soviet scientists launched Kosmos 482 in 1972 with the goal of reaching Venus. But an apparent engine malfunction stranded the spacecraft in low Earth orbit, where it's been ever since. It was packed with a variety of astronomical instruments, from temperature and pressure sensors to radio transmitters and a gamma-ray spectrometer.
Kosmos 482 separated into multiple pieces, some of which likely landed in New Zealand shortly after launch, according to a blog post by Marco Langbroek, a lecturer at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.
However, the spacecraft's lander probe has survived in orbit.
The Soviet craft was designed to stand up to the thick, hot atmosphere of Venus and has a parachute, though it's unclear if it is intact or will work after so many years.
Langbroek estimates that the reentry could occur anywhere across a large swath of the globe stretching from Canada and Russia to the southern tip of South America.
Langbroek said the lander — if it survives reentry — could make impact at a speed of roughly 150 miles per hour.
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