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Study Suggests Social Networks Predict Victims of Gun Homicide

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A new Yale University study suggests that social interactions are a key predictor of who becomes a victim of gun violence. According to the study, published in The American Journal of Public Health, who you hang out with may be more important than other factors like race and socioeconomic status.

The study focused on Chicago's gun homicide records from 2006 to 2011. The research showed that six percent of the population was involved in 70 percent of the murders. Researchers said that six percent are unwittingly part of a network. "They call this the 'cousin rule,'" said Andrew Papachristos, an associate sociology professor at Yale, and lead author of the study. "Ray and I are standing on a street corner, and you have to go downtown, and I say, 'Don't worry, my cousin will take you.' Then my cousin stops off at a party, and a gun goes off. It's tragic, but it's not random. You got there through a series of connections, and this type of approach helps you see those connections."

The study said every one of those six percent have a criminal record, and are, shockingly, 900 percent more likely to die from a gun than the rest of the population. "Even within these high-crime communities," Papachristo said, "you're talking about a small number of identifiable individuals who are at the most risk. It helps us explain a little bit better who gets shot and who doesn't."

The Chicago police department took Papachristos's data, and contacted the top 20 people most likely to use or die from a gun. The police informed them of the data, and warned them to stay out of trouble.

Other cities are interested in this social network approach to gun homicides, including New Haven, whose Project Longevity aims to curb gun violence by identifying and reaching out to groups of people most likely to engage in gun violence.

Ray Hardman is Connecticut Public’s Arts and Culture Reporter. He is the host of CPTV’s Emmy-nominated original series Where Art Thou? Listeners to Connecticut Public Radio may know Ray as the local voice of Morning Edition, and later of All Things Considered.

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SOMOS CONNECTICUT is an initiative from Connecticut Public, the state’s local NPR and PBS station, to elevate Latino stories and expand programming that uplifts and informs our Latino communities. Visit CTPublic.org/latino for more stories and resources. For updates, sign up for the SOMOS CONNECTICUT newsletter at ctpublic.org/newsletters.

SOMOS CONNECTICUT es una iniciativa de Connecticut Public, la emisora local de NPR y PBS del estado, que busca elevar nuestras historias latinas y expandir programación que alza y informa nuestras comunidades latinas locales. Visita CTPublic.org/latino para más reportajes y recursos. Para noticias, suscríbase a nuestro boletín informativo en ctpublic.org/newsletters.

The independent journalism and non-commercial programming you rely on every day is in danger.

If you’re reading this, you believe in trusted journalism and in learning without paywalls. You value access to educational content kids love and enriching cultural programming.

Now all of that is at risk.

Federal funding for public media is under threat and if it goes, the impact to our communities will be devastating.

Together, we can defend it. It’s time to protect what matters.

Your voice has protected public media before. Now, it’s needed again. Learn how you can protect the news and programming you depend on.