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Politics

Quinnipiac Poll Ahead of New York Primary Shows Trump, Clinton in the Lead

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New York is a key state for each party's nomination, accounting for 95 delegates for the Republicans, and 247 delegates for the Democrats.

A new Quinnipiac University poll was released on Tuesday for the upcoming presidential primaries in New York State scheduled for April 19.

The poll shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leading the democratic race over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with a total of 53 percent of likely registered democrat primary voters in New York.  

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, business mogul Donald Trump leads in the poll with 55 percent of registered voters. Ohio Governor John Kasich follows with 20 percent, and Ted Cruz ends up in a close third with 19 percent of the vote.

New York is a key state for each party’s nomination, accounting for 95 delegates for the Republicans, and a much more significant 247 delegates for the Democrats.

New York is a closed primary. This means that citizens who are not registered with either Democrats or Republicans will be unable to participate in the voting next Tuesday.

This could give Clinton the edge over Sanders for the Democrats. Sanders has been earning a majority of his support from unaffiliated or Independent voters.

But recent polls have also shown that a wide array of demographics in the Empire State – including minorities, women, young people, older generations, and white males – could potentially be the key to victory in the state for both parties.

This election season, Sanders has continuously beaten Clinton in the 18-to-29 age demographic among Democrats, while Clinton has touted victories among minorities and older populations.

Maurice Carroll is the Quinnipiac University Poll assistant director, and said that black voters and female voters are going to be a major factor for Clinton in New York.

"Black voters matter for Secretary Hillary Clinton in the New York Democratic primary," said Carroll in a press release on the Quinnipiac University website. "She leads Sen. Bernie Sanders in many New York demographic groups except the young folks and very liberal voters, but it's a huge lead among black voters that gives her a comfortable double-digit margin."  

In the poll released on Tuesday, Clinton holds the advantage among black voters in New York with 65 percent supporting the former secretary of state and New York senator. Women also seem to be in favor of nominating the first woman presidential candidate with 55 percent supporting Clinton.

"Gender counts, too. New York women like the idea of nominating the first woman president," said Carroll.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump has directed his campaign towards the white male demographic, which historically has dominated every election. If Trump earns 50 percent of the vote in each congressional district, he will walk away with all 95 delegates. 

"Remember, there's a Republican primary, too, and Donald Trump is big in his home state," Carroll said.

Cruz, on the other hand, has earned consistent victories among majority-minority congressional districts throughout this election season. But recent polls show Cruz trailing both Trump and Kasich for next week’s primary.

In a GOP debate last January, Cruz directed insults toward Trump stating that he represented “New York values.” Cruz quickly defended his remarks saying that these values represented in New York are socially liberal among other things.

1,237 delegates are needed to secure the Republican nomination, and 2,383 delegates are needed to secure it for the Democrats.

Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Maryland will all hold their primaries April 26.

Daniel Keith is an intern with WNPR.

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