SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Two Eastern European countries hold presidential elections tomorrow - Poland and Romania. And both races feature far-right candidates who are contending with more pro-Western ones. NPR's Central Europe correspondent Rob Schmitz joins us now from Berlin. Rob, thanks for being with us.
ROB SCHMITZ, BYLINE: Thanks for having me, Scott.
SIMON: Let's begin in Poland, please. The far-right Law and Justice party, which had chipped away at the country's democratic institutions for years, lost control of Parliament a couple of years ago. So how does this presidential race figure into all this?
SCHMITZ: Yeah. So in autumn of 2023, Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist Civic Coalition had a surprise victory over the Law and Justice party. But since then, Tusk's coalition has had a very difficult time undoing some of the damage that Law and Justice had done, especially on the country's judiciary. And that's because each time they've tried to pass new laws that aim to restore the courts, outgoing President Andrzej Duda, an ally of Law and Justice, has vetoed them, effectively becoming a barrier to Tusk's agenda. But now Duda is termed out as president, and the Civic Coalition has a chance here to win the presidency because their candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, has a commanding lead in the polls. Law and Justice's candidate, Karol Nawrocki, is trailing by around 5%. But because there are several other candidates in this election, we likely won't see any single candidate get a majority tomorrow. So it'll likely head to a runoff between two of the leading candidates in early June.
SIMON: And why are political analysts calling this one of the most important presidential elections in a generation?
SCHMITZ: Well, one reason is that we're seeing another resurgence, Scott, in this part of Europe of the far right. And even in Poland, the Law and Justice party is gaining ground again, which makes analysts think that they could win the next parliamentary election in 2027 and that if there isn't a president to check their power, these observers say, Poland's democracy could be in trouble. Here's political analyst Andrzej Bobinski.
ANDRZEJ BOBINSKI: Then the president is super important as somebody who will be basically checking the next government and will be an important safeguard of the constitutional order.
SIMON: Rob, let's move on to Romania. Voters there cast ballots tomorrow in the second round of their presidential election. What should we know?
SCHMITZ: Well, since we're talking about the resurgence of the far right in Europe, Romania is a good example of that. Last November, a relative unknown far-right, pro-Kremlin candidate, Calin Georgescu, surprisingly won, but a judge later annulled the election after state intelligence revealed that Russia had been involved in setting up almost 800 TikTok accounts supporting him, having undue influence over the electorate. Russia has denied these accusations. So now Romanian voters will decide between two candidates - a hard-right nationalist who's a fan of President Trump and Vladimir Putin - his name is George Simion - and a pro-Western reformer, Nicusor Dan, who's also the mayor of Bucharest, Romania's capital. Political analysts are framing this election as one of East versus West.
SIMON: And is there a clear front-runner?
SCHMITZ: Well, unlike the Polish election, there is not a clear frontrunner in the Romanian election. The polls are all over the place. And given what happened last November, the outcome of this election could be unpredictable and full of controversy. Many Europeans are nervously watching this one.
SIMON: NPR's Central Europe correspondent Rob Schmitz. Thanks so much for being with us.
SCHMITZ: Thanks for having me.
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