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In western CT, 5th Congressional District race may come down to independent voters

The race for the 5th Congressional District in western Connecticut has once again captured the most attention of any federal matchup in the state.

The district is competitive because it’s home to a larger share of independent voters, experts say.

Democratic incumbent U.S. Rep. Jahana Hayes and Republican challenger George Logan are locked in a heated rematch after she narrowly defeated him in 2022.

Public polling indicates the potential for another close race. A recent poll showed Hayes with a three-point lead, but within the poll's margin of error. But Democrats have consistently won the 5th District since 2006 and Hayes has held the seat since 2018.

The suburbs in the 5th District have higher percentages of independents and voters with college education. But those areas are starting to shift more demographically, culturally and politically. That’s according to Scott McLean, a political science professor at Quinnipiac University.

“I think what has made this ... a more competitive district, but one controlled year in and year out by Democrats, nevertheless, is because the suburbs are changing," McLean said. "They’re changing in Connecticut. They’re changing nationwide.”

McLean said Republicans in Connecticut have struggled a bit more with tapping into the independent swing vote over the past few cycles. But he said both the Hayes and Logan campaigns will need to focus on direct voter mobilization as Election Day approaches.

Lisa Hagen is CT Public and CT Mirror’s shared Federal Policy Reporter. Based in Washington, D.C., she focuses on the impact of federal policy in Connecticut and covers the state’s congressional delegation. Lisa previously covered national politics and campaigns for U.S. News & World Report, The Hill and National Journal’s Hotline.

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SOMOS CONNECTICUT es una iniciativa de Connecticut Public, la emisora local de NPR y PBS del estado, que busca elevar nuestras historias latinas y expandir programación que alza y informa nuestras comunidades latinas locales. Visita CTPublic.org/latino para más reportajes y recursos. Para noticias, suscríbase a nuestro boletín informativo en ctpublic.org/newsletters.

The independent journalism and non-commercial programming you rely on every day is in danger.

If you’re reading this, you believe in trusted journalism and in learning without paywalls. You value access to educational content kids love and enriching cultural programming.

Now all of that is at risk.

Federal funding for public media is under threat and if it goes, the impact to our communities will be devastating.

Together, we can defend it. It’s time to protect what matters.

Your voice has protected public media before. Now, it’s needed again. Learn how you can protect the news and programming you depend on.