MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Even though Ukraine was not invited to the summit in Alaska - or what Trump officials are calling a listening session - President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will still have to figure out how to respond to anything that comes out of it. To talk about that, we've called Alexander Vindman. He served as the director for European affairs for the U.S. National Security Council during the First Trump administration. He's also a retired lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army. Good morning, Lieutenant Colonel. Thanks for joining us once again.
ALEXANDER VINDMAN: Thank you.
MARTIN: So obviously, we don't know what tomorrow's meeting between Trump and Putin is going to produce, if anything, but what are the options for Ukraine right now?
VINDMAN: Ukraine doesn't have many options. Throughout the entirety of the Trump administration, their playbook has been to exercise their somewhat limited influence directly over the administration in their conversations. That's been fraught at times, if we recall the chaos of the Oval Office meeting. Some of that's been repaired in subsequent meetings. The Ukrainians have some supporters and backers in Congress, including amongst the Republican ranks - folks that, behind the scenes, will support their ability to defend themselves. Lindsey Graham, for instance, is a supporter. But he won't do so publicly, and he won't do anything that puts him at odds with the Trump administration. Same thing, to a certain extent, with Marco Rubio.
But what they do have is a host of supporters outside. This is Keir Starmer, who Zelenskyy's meeting with today. This is President Macron of France. This is all of their allies that understand that it's in their own security interest to help bolster U.S. support for Ukraine and keep the U.S. engaged, and make sure that the Trump administration doesn't give away the farm in this upcoming summit. So that's the primary way, and trying to counsel the Trump administration with their knowledge of how Russia negotiates - that nothing can be taken at face value - to...
MARTIN: Yeah.
VINDMAN: ...Be very cautious. That's their approach.
MARTIN: So some of the issues on the table that people may have heard about - lean more on Europe, keep fighting, negotiate a peace settlement that freezes the current land gains that each side has made, land some kind of land swap. Trump has talked about that. President Zelenskyy's made it clear on several occasions that he rejects any type of land swap with Russia. But given the reality of the war and given what seems to be President Trump's disposition, is this position really sustainable in the long run?
VINDMAN: It's certainly sustainable for the near future - months, through the year, probably into next year. The Ukrainians do have resources. They produce somewhere on the order of about 60% of what they need. The Europeans will continue to support them. The promised sale of weapons to Ukraine, unless that's halted, will continue to sustain them. The battlefield dynamics, these losses - you know, those are hard. Even if the Russians are losing three times as much, they have three times the population. But I think the important thing is to try to keep the U.S. involved as much as possible with this intelligence-sharing arrangement, with some support, and also making sure that the U.S. doesn't give away the farm.
The way this is framed by the Russians right now is a wide-open conversation which heavily favors Putin. He's been around for 25 years. He's engaged with four different presidents - five, if you consider Clinton. He knows how to manipulate, maneuver, talk about historical grievances, things that occurred deep in the past, and something that Trump could latch on to when, you know, the criticism's focused on President Biden or President Obama. And these are things that a very sophisticated actor like Putin is going to put in front of Trump - look for sanctions relief, look to normalize the relationships. This is shaping up to be a huge win for Russia, with little to show for the U.S. except for a PR stunt that, you know, may, may not deliver.
MARTIN: So before we let you go, on Wednesday, President Trump seemed to suggest that this Friday meeting is setting the table for a follow-up meeting where Zelenskyy would be included. What do you make of that? You only have about 30 seconds.
VINDMAN: I don't think it's a reasonable starting point. You usually start with diplomatic negotiations framed by subordinate staff, some preliminary agreements. This is wide open, and there's little interest for Putin to really give much ground. He wants to see what he can get. He could take some additional gifts. So I don't know if - this is not going to really advance the cause of peace. It might eventually put more pressure on Ukraine if Putin believes that Ukraine's the bad actor and impediment.
MARTIN: That's Alexander Vindman. He's a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel, and he's the former director for European affairs at the U.S. National Security Council. Thanks so much for joining us.
VINDMAN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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