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Overconfidence Is Overrated

Chion Wolf
/
WNPR
Daylian Cain is an associate professor at Yale School of Management
Credit Conmunity / Creative Commons
/
Creative Commons

Here's my favorite one. Eighty-four percent of Frenchmen rate themselves as above average lovers. Ninety-three percent of young drivers in another survey said they were above average. And, 68% of the faculty at the University of Nebraska place themselves in the top 25%.

All of those numbers reflect misplaced confidence. It seems to be genetically wired into us in certain ways.

And, you kind of want it to be, at least some of the time. Otherwise nobody would ever open a restaurant. The odds against a positive return on their investment are incredibly daunting. But, the bias towards overconfidence also leads us into fiasco's.  

The problem is that we're all vulnerable to overconfidence but none of us believe it. We constantly overestimate our abilities, underestimate those of others relative to our own, and have a near unshakable faith in our beliefs and memories. 

So, how do we strike the balance? Our reach should exceed our grasp, except when we knock over a case of glassware at Pottery Barn.

Today, we look at the overconfidence bias. 

Leave your comments below, email us at colin@wnpr.org, or tweet us @wnprcolin.

GUESTS:

  • David Dunning is a professor of Psychology at Cornell University
  • Daylian Cain  is an associate professor of Organizational Behavior at Yale School of Management  
  • Terrance Odean  is a professor of Finance at the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley

Colin McEnroe is a radio host, newspaper columnist, magazine writer, author, playwright, lecturer, moderator, college instructor and occasional singer. Colin can be reached at colin@ctpublic.org.

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SOMOS CONNECTICUT es una iniciativa de Connecticut Public, la emisora local de NPR y PBS del estado, que busca elevar nuestras historias latinas y expandir programación que alza y informa nuestras comunidades latinas locales. Visita CTPublic.org/latino para más reportajes y recursos. Para noticias, suscríbase a nuestro boletín informativo en ctpublic.org/newsletters.

The independent journalism and non-commercial programming you rely on every day is in danger.

If you’re reading this, you believe in trusted journalism and in learning without paywalls. You value access to educational content kids love and enriching cultural programming.

Now all of that is at risk.

Federal funding for public media is under threat and if it goes, the impact to our communities will be devastating.

Together, we can defend it. It’s time to protect what matters.

Your voice has protected public media before. Now, it’s needed again. Learn how you can protect the news and programming you depend on.