AILSA CHANG, HOST:
Iran's retaliatory attack against a key U.S. military base in Qatar today was not a surprise. Iran is responding to the U.S. bombings of its nuclear energy facilities over the weekend, which President Trump called a, quote, "spectacular military success." Now, one other way that Iran could respond is closing off the Strait of Hormuz. That's the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the rest of the world. It's a vital pathway for world energy supplies. NPR's Kat Lonsdorf reports.
KAT LONSDORF, BYLINE: Around 20% of the world's oil and natural gas goes through the Strait of Hormuz.
CLAY SEIGLE: A full closure would be a seismic event for energy markets and for the economy.
LONSDORF: That's Clay Seigle. He's a senior fellow for energy security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He says it could cause prices to surge, similar to what happened back in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine disrupted global oil markets, sending the price of crude oil per barrel skyrocketing to triple digits. On Sunday, Iran's parliament voted to close the strait, according to Iranian state TV, but the move would still require approval from Iran's top security council. In an interview on Fox, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it would be a, quote, "massive escalation."
(SOUNDBITE OF TV SHOW, "SUNDAY MORNING FUTURES")
MARCO RUBIO: If they do that, it'll be another terrible mistake. It's economic suicide for them if they do it.
COLBY CONNELLY: It would absolutely be a very difficult economic outcome for Iran.
LONSDORF: Colby Connelly is an energy analyst and senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. He points out that closing the strait would mean Iran would not be able to ship its own oil, too, which is why it seems unlikely Iran would actually go through with it.
CONNELLY: I think that's why most of us that watch the space and the industry and the markets are thinking of this as an absolute worst-case scenario.
LONSDORF: Something Iran would only do as a last resort. Iran has never closed the Strait of Hormuz completely before, but it has attacked ships in the strait before, maybe most notably in the 1980s, when the U.S. had to send warships to essentially escort oil tankers through and protect them from Iranian attacks. Clayton Seigle thinks something like that is more likely than a complete closure - covert actions against certain ships without totally halting trade.
SEIGLE: It's not an all-or-nothing situation.
LONSDORF: Israel has done significant damage to Iran's long-range missile capabilities, but Iran still has short- and medium-range missiles, like what was used in the attack on the U.S. base today, as well as naval ships and underwater mines.
SEIGLE: It would be a mistake to feel like they don't still have some significant arrows in the quiver to deploy against Gulf shipping. I think they do.
LONSDORF: That would, of course, still have an effect on oil supply and markets, largely dependent on how long attacks went on and what kind of damage was done. The price of crude oil has fluctuated in recent days, and insurance for ships making the journey has gone up. But for now, it's all based on hypotheticals - until it isn't.
Kat Lonsdorf, NPR News, Washington. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.