About 21 percent of Connecticut's coastal inhabitants are the "first out," thinking it's safer to leave than to ride out a storm.
Before Superstorm Sandy made landfall in 2012, several Connecticut towns received mandatory evacuation orders. But many chose to ignore them and ride out the storm. Now researchers at Yale University are trying to find out why.
Today's weather predictions mean people have more notice than ever of advancing hurricanes, but Jennifer Marlon, a researcher at Yale University, said there's a still a big communication gap between forecasters and the public. That made her wonder why some people choose to leave their homes when a storm is coming, while others ignore an evacuation notice and decide to ride the storm out.
To begin answering that question, Marlon surveyed more than 1,100 coastal residents. The goal was to figure out who, exactly, forecasters and first responders are talking to when they order an evacuation.
She found about 21 percent of Connecticut's coastal inhabitants fell into a group called "the first out." They basically think it's always safer to leave.
"'Constrained' people are aware of the risks but they perceive significant barriers," Marlon said. "Health and disability issues, transportation problems or lack of transportation. Or they have a lot of pets to worry about."
They're about 14 percent of coastal residents. Then there are the optimists, folks who will leave, but don't really expect a hurricane to come -- so they don't prepare.
The largest group, at 27 percent, are "the reluctant." Marlon says these people will leave, but only if they're directly ordered.
The second biggest group, at 22 percent, are the "the diehards."
"They're independent, self-reliant types and basically they think it's safer to stay at home then to leave," Marlon said. "Because of looters. Protecting their property - and also, they're afraid of not being able to return quickly after the storm passes.
Marlon said this group also tends to be the most prepared. Thirty-six percent of "die-hards" have generators.
Marlon said the next step is to get this information to emergency responders and weather broadcasters -- so they can better communicate the risks of hurricanes pose to the homes and lives of coastal residents.
"Most emergency responders and many people who are communicating about the issue are thinking about the forecast. They're just really trying to say where the winds are going to be worst and where the flooding is going to be," Marlon said. "We need to tell people, 'Your toilet won't work. Your shower won't work.' Help them understand why it's important to leave."
