The federal government shutdown on October 1, Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont has warned that 50,000 Americans could die each year if Democrats agree to the removal of Affordable Care Act subsidies. That removal has been proposed by Republicans in their Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the federal government. He has been attributing that number to a joint-study completed by Yale and The University of Pennsylvania. One of the study’s authors, Yale epidemiologist Alison Galvani, says she and her team have noticed.
“It’s heartening that he [Sanders] is basing his policy decisions and stances on evidence,” she said. “It’s been referenced by many members of Congress.”
How researchers reached 50,000 deaths a year
Galvani, a professor at the Yale School of Public Health, confirmed that Sanders’ figure aligns with her team’s findings.
“According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, 15 million people are poised to lose their health insurance.”
She explained that uninsured people face a 40% higher risk of death than those with coverage.
“If you have cancer but don’t have access to chemotherapy you need, you’ll likely die,” Galvani said. Her team applied that elevated risk to the Congressional Budget Office projections, taking into account age and population health trends.
Beyond mortality: widespread health and economic fallout
The study’s findings extend beyond mortality. Among those losing coverage, Galvani’s team projected 130,000 untreated diabetes cases, 101,000 untreated substance-use disorders, 165,000 unmanaged hypertension cases, and more than 200,000 untreated mental illnesses.
“When people lose coverage, they’re more likely to delay care until conditions become severe and expensive,” she said. “More families will face crushing medical debt and a reduced capacity to remain in the workforce.”
Hospitals, particularly in rural areas dependent on Medicaid funding, could face new financial strain as uncompensated care rises, potentially triggering facility closures and deeper access gaps.
Shutdown politics and the cost of inaction
With the federal government shut down amid the political standoff over funding and health care policy, Galvani said the fight underscores the stakes. “It’s striking that this is what it takes to try to safeguard healthcare for millions of Americans,” she said. “But what is more important than saving lives? My perspective is that this is a fight worth fighting.”
