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U.S. Intelligence Dabbles in Forecasting the Future

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The participants are average citizens: school teachers, waiters, pharmacists, perhaps even your neighbor. By day they work and pay their bills, but when they return home, things change. These elite individuals go to work forecasting the outcomes of global events (sometimes years into the future), all at the direction of a little-known government intelligence agency called IARPA.

While this all sounds ripped from the latest Hollywood thriller, the truth is that this is happening right now in America. The "superforecasters," as they are known, are all volunteers. They are Americans like you and me who signed up to take part in a long-running experiment put together by U.S. intelligence officials and several university professors.

The idea behind the experiment, known as The Good Judgment Project, was to test whether normal people, with no access to top-secret information, could forecast with accuracy the outcomes of many events that top intelligence analysts spend their entire careers investigating: The collapse of foreign regimes, the spread of deadly outbreaks, the meltdown of nuclear reactors, and other such headline-making events.

The results of the experiment as well as the means by which it was conducted (and is still being conducted) will surprise you.

This hour, we talk to the experiment's designers and to a certified "superforecaster" herself. We find out exactly how forecasting the future may become an essential component of our national security.

GUESTS:

Join the conversation on Facebook and Twitter.

Colin McEnroe and Chion Wolf contributed to this show, which originally aired September 30, 2015.

Josh was a producer for WNPR's talk shows. He has produced for Where We Live and was a producer for The Colin McEnroe Show until 2020.

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SOMOS CONNECTICUT es una iniciativa de Connecticut Public, la emisora local de NPR y PBS del estado, que busca elevar nuestras historias latinas y expandir programación que alza y informa nuestras comunidades latinas locales. Visita CTPublic.org/latino para más reportajes y recursos. Para noticias, suscríbase a nuestro boletín informativo en ctpublic.org/newsletters.

The independent journalism and non-commercial programming you rely on every day is in danger.

If you’re reading this, you believe in trusted journalism and in learning without paywalls. You value access to educational content kids love and enriching cultural programming.

Now all of that is at risk.

Federal funding for public media is under threat and if it goes, the impact to our communities will be devastating.

Together, we can defend it. It’s time to protect what matters.

Your voice has protected public media before. Now, it’s needed again. Learn how you can protect the news and programming you depend on.