Democratic gains in recent elections — from November’s results to closely-watched special contests — are fueling fresh questions about whether political momentum is shifting ahead of the 2026 midterms.
The early signs point less to a sweeping “blue wave” and more to changes in who is showing up at the polls, said Jonathan Wharton, an associate professor of political science and public policy at Southern Connecticut State University.
“What we’re seeing more is just a higher turnout of Democrats showing up,” Wharton said, noting that Republicans have historically been more consistent voters in midterm and special elections. “It’s not that Republicans aren’t showing up — the numbers just aren’t nearly as high as they were in the past.”
Wharton said the more consequential development may be the increased participation of unaffiliated voters, who often receive less attention in polling and post-election analysis.
“As a plurality, they are the larger cohort of voters nationally,” he said, estimating unaffiliated voters make up roughly 43% of the electorate nationwide. Connecticut, he added, closely mirrors that trend, with unaffiliated voters hovering around 40%, even as registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a wider margin than the national average.
Local upsets reshape Connecticut’s map
At the municipal level, Wharton said several Connecticut results stood out, particularly incumbent losses in mayoral races in Ansonia and Milford.
“That’s a bit unusual,” he said, especially given the Naugatuck Valley’s history of leaning Republican. Stratford’s results, he added, were also a surprise.
Farmington’s town council flip — ending roughly 70 years of Republican control — was another signal that long-held assumptions about local political strongholds may no longer apply.
“Some people just assume it’s still a Republican stronghold,” Wharton said. “This was a big shakeup, especially for the council writ large.”
Candidate shortages raise concerns
Despite the political churn, Wharton cautioned that Connecticut faces a deeper structural challenge: a lack of contested races. More than a third of towns had no competition for mayor or first selectman this year.
“We’re seeing the same thing in the General Assembly,” he said, pointing to persistent difficulties recruiting candidates for both local and state offices. The reasons, he suggested, range from generational shifts to fundraising challenges.
The trend, he said, carries implications for both parties — particularly Republicans, who have historically held a majority of local executive offices but are now seeing that advantage erode.
Affordability dominates the agenda
Cost-of-living concerns remain central across Connecticut’s political landscape, an issue Wharton said will only intensify heading into 2026.
“This is not going away,” he said, noting that affordability has surfaced not just in Connecticut but across the region, including recent local elections in New Jersey. “It’s a tri-state area concern.”
The issue is also reshaping partisan arguments, as Democrats face increasing pressure to defend economic conditions while Republicans — and even Democratic challengers — lean into affordability critiques.
Housing bill sparks uncertainty
The legislature’s recent passage of a revised housing bill during a special session drew mixed expectations from Wharton, who described it as both substantive policy and political cover.
Much will depend on how municipalities respond and whether legal challenges follow, he said.
“I would not be surprised if it’s an issue that will be coming up again,” he said, adding that housing policy often requires multiple legislative revisions before taking full effect.
Redistricting in CT? Been there, done that
As national attention turns to redistricting battles, Wharton said Connecticut is hardly new to the practice.
“I’ve argued that we’ve been in the redistricting game for years,” he said, pointing to the state’s unusually shaped congressional districts — including the 1st Congressional District, sometimes dubbed the “lobster claw” for its winding boundaries.
Those lines, he said, reflect decades of political compromise, incumbent protection and the state’s loss of a congressional seat in the 1990s — decisions that continue to shape Connecticut’s political geography today.
