A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
NPR's Franco Ordoñez has noticed a pattern in how President Trump talks about Iran. Trump says the war is over or almost over. Then clearly it is not.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Over the weekend, the president said a groundbreaking deal with Iran was, quote, "largely negotiated." A day later, he said there was no rush, while his aides indicated the deal was not done. And then on Monday, U.S. forces attacked Iranian speedboats that they said were attempting to lay mines.
MARTÍNEZ: So Franco Ordoñez is here with us now. How many times have you seen this happen?
FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: Yeah. A, it's happened at least a half-dozen times, dating back to late March. I mean, he's repeated several variations that a deal is close, that an agreement was largely negotiated, that a framework exists, and then, of course, it just doesn't happen. I mean, take this weekend. After almost three months of war, Trump was talking about an almost finalized deal that would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz. He was almost, actually, taking a victory lap, thanking intermediaries for their help with negotiations. And then, of course, you had the blowback from Republicans in Israel.
I would say that this was the most emphatic he's been about an upcoming deal, but it's happened before. I mean, last month, Trump said they were very close to a deal and that the two sides agreed to even dig up Iran's enriched uranium. The reality is, while the president has repeatedly projected this kind of optimism, there is yet to be anything really concrete or durable toward a resolution.
MARTÍNEZ: Well, and now he's trying to add more things to the deal. He's pressing on more countries to join the Abraham Accords. That's the regional agreement that seeks to normalize relations with Israel. But asking for that could make reaching a deal a lot more difficult.
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah. It really could, as Iran sees the Abraham Accords as anti-Iran. I mean, I was talking with Matthew Kroenig, who had the Iran portfolio at the Pentagon in the Obama administration. He also served under George W. Bush and Trump. You know, he says the deal is already complicated enough. It would make more sense to be used as a kind of carrot-and-stick approach where you tell Iran, you'd better make this deal, or else we're going to make dynamics in the region much more difficult for you by expanding the Accords. But he said this actually may be more about sending a message to Israel.
MATTHEW KROENIG: One way it might make sense is if you're dealing with different audiences, and the Abraham Accords is actually aimed at Israel and Netanyahu and saying, I know you're not happy that we're on the verge of making peace with the Islamic Republic, but please stand down for now. There's something else in it for you.
ORDOÑEZ: And that, of course, would be a better security environment overall for Israel.
MARTÍNEZ: OK. So it's - if it's a better security environment, then why is it a hard sell to get other countries to join?
ORDOÑEZ: Well, the biggest obstacle is the lack of a Palestinian state. Many Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, have maintained a position that they will not normalize ties with Israel without a clear path towards creating one. And it's something that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, of Israel has said will never happen.
MARTÍNEZ: So how much are political pressures playing into all this?
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, I'd say quite a bit. Trump is facing growing pressure from various fronts to take action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to get a handle on gas prices. They - actually, gas prices hit a new high over Memorial Day weekend. And polls show that the war is unpopular with many Americans, and Trump's approval ratings are also dropping. And Republicans worry that they could lose the majorities in the midterms, both in the House and the Senate.
MARTÍNEZ: That's White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez. Thanks a lot.
ORDOÑEZ: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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