President Trump's deployment of the National Guard in Washington, D.C. has reduced petty property crimes, but has had little to no effect on violent crime, despite the high cost to taxpayers, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan think tank Niskanen Center.
The study's findings were published just weeks after federal officials announced that the number of troops in D.C. is set to double this summer to 5,000 as part of a "summer surge" of law enforcement ahead of events planned for America's 250th birthday celebration.
Trump deployed the National Guard to D.C. last August, as part of the administration's Safe and Beautiful Task Force, which he said was an effort to reduce crime and beautify the city. The task force includes hundreds of federal law enforcement — including immigration enforcement — working in conjunction with local police. It's an approach that Trump previously said he wants to carry out in "many cities," and already has in places like Memphis and New Orleans.
There are currently around 2,800 National Guard members deployed to D.C. from both the city itself and about a dozen other states, all of which have Republican governors. In contrast to other controversial National Guard deployments by Trump during his second term, the president has the authority over the Guard in D.C.
Guard members do not legally have the power to carry out arrests, but can detain individuals.
Troops — many of whom are armed — are largely carrying out what are called "high visibility patrols" to make their presence known around federal property and in residential areas, parks and city metro stations in an effort to free up D.C. police to redeploy to higher-crime areas. The report found that generally hasn't happened.
Instead, researchers found that the deployment led to a 24% drop in "opportunistic" crimes — like property crimes and vehicle break-ins. But the presence of the Guard had no effect on violent crimes, including robberies, which were already on a downward trend before Trump came back into office.
"What the Guard brought was a massive, sudden shock from the visible presence of uniformed military personnel on the streets of Washington almost overnight," researchers wrote, calling the deployment of the Guard a "blunt and expensive instrument."
A recent assessment by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that it costs the federal government around $1.5 million per day for the current number of troops deployed to D.C.
"I think on balance the National Guard's deployment is not a failure, there is success in what they've done. But I guess the point that we try to make is: compared to what?" says Richard Hahn, one of the authors of the study. "You could get the same or better outcomes, possibly much better outcomes, for much cheaper, if you just were very thoughtful about policing."
In response to NPR's request for comment about the study, White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson said that it "should not be taken seriously."
"The President's Safe and Beautiful Task Force and National Guard presence have driven down crime, beautified the city, and improved quality of life for countless individuals," Jackson said, without providing any evidence.
It's unclear when the planned "summer surge" would end, or if the number of National Guard troops in the city would return to their current levels in the fall.
"Our message today is that we're not done. We are not satisfied. We are not content with good. We are coming for perfection, and we won't be done until we reclaim every last inch of ground on anyone seeking to do harm in our nation's capital," Assistant Attorney General Colin M. McDonald said when announcing the surge.
NPR reached out to task force officials behind the Guard deployment for clarity on when the surge might start or end, but did not receive an immediate response.
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