SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
And now to Europe, where leaders in France, Poland and across the continent this week are saying the Russians are coming. Their warning stems from what they say are increasingly brazen Russian attacks. NPR's Russia correspondent, Charles Maynes, joins us now. Charles, thanks so much for being with us.
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Good morning, Scott.
SIMON: When these European leaders mention Russian attacks, they call them hybrid. What's that?
MAYNES: Well, they're referring to moves that fall into a kind of gray zone. You know, they're not traditional military attacks but nonetheless undermine Europe's sense of security. So we've seen what looked to be attempts to sabotage defense or logistics infrastructure. For example, attack drones were found hidden at an airport in Germany that serves as a transit hub for NATO. There are also allegations of cyberattacks, election interference or misinformation. And in the U.S., the Trump administration's Justice Department last week said it had foiled a Russian plot to assassinate an exiled dissident.
You know, of course, all this comes in the context of Russia's war in Ukraine, which is now in its fifth year, and we've repeatedly seen drones fall on or near bordering NATO member countries like Poland and Romania. And while some are believed to be errant drones that had really just gone off course, there's growing evidence that's not always the case. It seems they're there to provoke and maybe even strike targets.
SIMON: But is there proof that Russia is responsible?
MAYNES: Well, that's tougher to say. Western intelligence agencies say they have no doubt these are acts carried out by Moscow. As to proof, they point to communication intercepts, messages essentially sent by Russian security services where third parties are offered money to carry out assignments. So in other words, they're kind of task rabbits hired to do the dirty work.
SIMON: And what does Russia say?
MAYNES: Well, they say there's no proof, and this is just scaremongering against Russia. In some cases, like this German airport incident, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said outright this is an elaborate false-flag operation with these attacks staged by Ukraine or the West to rally the European public against Moscow.
And I have to say the Kremlin is quite good at exploiting these denials at home. You know, they say to the Russian public, look how they blame us, how they blame you for everything, whether it's doping in sports, atrocities in Ukraine, threatening Europe, election interference, you name it. You know, Russia is always the guilty party, and I think some Russians, as a result, say, well, maybe they do hate us.
SIMON: If it is Russia, what's the rationale? What would Moscow be trying to achieve?
MAYNES: Well, Russia's long argued the West, through its military support for Ukraine, is de facto a direct participant in the war. And so the theory here is that Russia's punishing Europe for this in particular to the point where European leaders - or at least their voters - eventually say, enough's enough. Ukraine's just not worth the trouble.
SIMON: But doesn't that risk a direct conflict with NATO?
MAYNES: Well, that's the fear that one of these attacks proves deadly, and NATO may feel it has to respond. Perhaps even by triggering Article 5, the concept that an attack on one member of NATO is an attack on all. And so the theory is that the Russian approach here is to keep it just below that threshold and instead undermine the alliance gradually. You know, think of it as death to Article 5 by a thousand cuts.
SIMON: So what does Europe or the West do then?
MAYNES: Well, European leaders like France's Emmanuel Macron or Poland's Donald Tusk have made clear they intend to get tougher with Moscow through more sanctions on Russia, support to Ukraine, perhaps even some military action if necessary. The Trump administration's approach seems quite to be the opposite. You know, they want to engage and talk up a future of deals and prosperity to help get issues like Ukraine settled, and the rest, they think, will take care of itself. You know, which approach - carrot or stick - is better? I don't know. I don't think anybody does. But we're at a dangerous moment as we wait to find out.
SIMON: NPR's Charles Maynes. Thanks so much.
MAYNES: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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