August's Connecticut primaries produced one of the state's biggest political upsets in years, with Luke Bronin defeating longtime U.S. Rep. John Larson in a four-way Democratic primary for the 1st Congressional District.
Connecticut Mirror Capitol Bureau Chief Mark Pazniokis said the size of Bronin's victory was more significant than the upset itself.
"I was shocked by the margin of victory," Pazniokis said. "It's very difficult to unseat an incumbent under any circumstances, but to do so when it's a four-way race is a very impressive victory."
Pazniokis said Bronin's victory could encourage other challengers to take on long-serving incumbents, but he cautioned against interpreting it as a major ideological shift within the Democratic Party.
"This was a generational challenge," Pazniokis said. "This was not a fight over the heart and soul of the Democratic Party and what it believes."
Bronin will face Republican candidate Amy Chai in November.
Larson's next move
Larson has not committed to another campaign, including a possible run for the 1st district as an independent.
Pazniokis said Larson's performance in the Democratic primary would make an independent bid difficult because he received only about one-third of the vote.
"That is not a good base to mount an independent campaign," Pazniokis said.
Pazniokis said none of Connecticut's other incumbent members of Congress appears to be in significant danger of losing in November.
Lamont heads toward November
Gov. Ned Lamont also emerged from the primary with a decisive victory, defeating Josh Elliott by roughly a two-to-one margin.
Elliott challenged Lamont from the left, particularly on issues involving taxes and state spending. But Pazniokis said he does not expect the primary to leave Democrats sufficiently divided for Republican nominee Ryan Fazio to capitalize on it.
"I don't see the Democratic Party fractured by that primary to the extent that Ryan Fazio is going to be able to capitalize on it," Pazniokis said.
Pazniokis said Fazio faces the challenge of arguing that Lamont has been too liberal while after Elliott criticized the governor for being too conservative over issues like the handling of Connecticut's fiscal guardrails.
Legislative races could provide surprises
Some of the most closely watched contests in November could come farther down the ballot.
Pazniokis pointed to open state Senate seats in Greenwich and the district based in Fairfield, where Tony Hwang is not seeking reelection. He also mentioned a race in eastern Connecticut between Republican state Sen. Jeff Gordon and Democrat Ethan Werstler.
Pazniokis said Republicans' most realistic goal is not to lose districts they currently control.
"Holding the seats they have, quite frankly," Pazniokis said when asked what would constitute a successful election night for Republicans.
Fazio's future could extend beyond November
Pazniokis said Fazio's performance against Lamont could matter beyond this year's election. With Lamont potentially leaving office after a third term, Fazio could position himself as a leading Republican candidate in the next gubernatorial cycle.
But Pazniokis said the margin matters.
"How do you lose and by how much?" Pazniokis said. "Connecticut rarely elects a governor who hasn't already run statewide, whether they won or lost."
A heavy defeat could hurt Fazio's prospects in a future statewide campaign, Pazniokis said.
Watching turnout in Connecticut's cities
As the campaigns turn toward November, Pazniokis said one of the key questions will be whether Democrats can increase turnout in Connecticut's cities.
He said Lamont won his last gubernatorial election largely through strong suburban support, while turnout in Connecticut's cities was relatively low.
"Have the Democrats been able to excite urban voters in a way that they didn't two years ago or four years ago?" Pazniokis said.
The answer could help determine the shape of Connecticut's November election and provide an early indication of whether the political dynamics exposed by August primaries will carry over to the general election.
