Underlying the new population decline Puerto Rico experienced in 2025 was the return to population loss through migration flows—a trend that had been interrupted in the Census estimate the previous year and that may be linked, among other factors, to the results of the 2024 elections, in addition to the usual “push” factors such as economic conditions and access to services.
For demographer and anthropologist Vivianna De Jesús Monge, the net migration loss of 2,779 residents may also reflect that the policies of Donald Trump, after returning to the White House in January 2025, had a discouraging effect on foreign nationals who might have been considering moving to the archipelago, but did not stop Puerto Ricans from relocating to the United States, despite the hostile environment and the persecution that Hispanic communities have faced.
Although, at first glance, the net loss recorded may appear minimal, it did represent a much larger difference compared with the 2024 estimate, when Puerto Rico was calculated to have received 15,204 more people than those who emigrated. That year, positive migration virtually offset the loss associated with the gap between births and deaths, which for years has resulted in a negative balance.
“Each person, on an individual and even family level, makes that analysis—often unconsciously—of what attracts me to go and what pushes me to leave. (In 2025) all of that came together so that people still decided to leave. It would be good to know the destinations, which are likely the United States, because we have U.S. citizenship. Despite the warnings we receive in Puerto Rico that if you travel you should carry your passport, and these accounts that there are Puerto Ricans who have been detained by ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement), people left. In other words, what pushes you to leave is greater than the fear,” De Jesús Monge explained.
In the 2025 annual estimate, the negative gap between births and deaths observed continuously since 2016 was repeated. Between July 1, 2024, and the same date the following year, 17,950 births were recorded compared to 32,857 deaths, resulting in a “natural change” of negative 14,907, which combined with net migration to produce the estimated population decline of 17,686.
With that decrease, the island’s population was reduced to 3,184,835 residents—the first time it has fallen below 3.2 million since the 1980 Census. Likewise, as reported by El Nuevo Día, the year-over-year decline of 0.6% was greater than in the 50 U.S. states, where only five jurisdictions experienced a reduction in 2025.
“It means that migration is negative again. We know the population is going to decline over the next few years by 15,000 or a little more due to natural change. That is established. What will really determine whether the population declines, stays the same, or grows will be migration,” emphasized demographer Raúl Figueroa.
While the Census showed a net positive migration of more than 15,000 people in 2024, Figueroa warned that other analyses consider it to have been an overestimate.
“More important than whether people are coming in or leaving are the characteristics of the people who come and go. If people who are retiring and returning to Puerto Rico are coming in, for example, are we ready to serve that population? That’s something we have to ask ourselves,” he said.
The president of the Planning Board, Héctor Morales Martínez, underscored that the annual estimate alone does not explain migration fluctuations, and recalled that in 2022 the agency published a series of recommendations—following a multiyear study—to curb population loss.
“Findings and recommendations were established to prevent that population loss. I can tell you that there are specific municipalities that adopted the recommendations, such as Bayamón, which has shown steady growth, and there are others that did not. Beyond that, I can tell you that we have an economic development problem. People need jobs, reasons to stay because they have opportunities. We are working hard to create healthy and favorable economic development environments,” Morales Martínez said, noting that the ongoing revision of the Land Use Plan has “repopulating” the island as one of its objectives.
Morales Martínez pointed out that the Census Bureau’s annual estimate was delayed by the partial shutdown of the federal government for more than a month at the end of 2025, which may also affect the release of the Community Survey, expected later this year.
A more “simple” society
At the same time that Figueroa warned that, along with population decline, there is continued aging that raises questions about adaptive capacity, De Jesús Monge noted that population contraction results in a “less complex society.”
“Many times, people want respect for the knowledge or expertise they bring, and there isn’t space to grow. Puerto Rico, having lost population for about 25 years now, has fewer job opportunities. A country that grows because its population increases also expands its economic activity and has a lot of specialized work, with more branches and specialties. Since Puerto Rican society is moving in the opposite direction, students and workers are lost, and it pushes us toward a simpler society,” said the sociologist, adding that this is a phenomenon that can be observed in “post-industrial” societies.
That trend, De Jesús Monge emphasized, is exemplified in the field of medicine, where the rise of subspecialization during periods of growth can “devalue” the work of general practitioners or family doctors.
“These subspecialties have emerged because societies have become more complex and because there is more development. (…) I think we need to simplify. We have this vision that growth, expansion, and extension are inherently positive, but that’s not necessarily the case. We have to accept reality and work with it, not dream that Puerto Ricans will return to Puerto Rico,” she said.
De Jesús Monge and Figueroa stressed that the Community Survey will provide greater visibility into population trends at the municipal level, as well as key variables such as per capita income, poverty rates, older adults, and households headed by women, among others.
“That’s the information about characteristics that we currently lack. It will determine the planning we need to do. If services are needed, will we be able to provide them, or will people need to return to the United States? (The annual estimate) gives us total numbers, but the Community Survey will provide more details about the characteristics,” Figueroa said.
