Nearly 200,000 people in Connecticut could lose their Medicaid coverage under a worst-case projection analyzing changes to the government-funded health care program.
The changes, which go into effect Jan. 1, 2027, will require some adults to prove they are working to receive coverage. They also include tighter six-month eligibility redeterminations for coverage.
Nationally, the changes are expected to drive steep enrollment declines and cost states millions as they work to upgrade their computer systems.
The Urban Institute, a Washington D.C.-based think tank, recently examined the potential impact on states, projecting millions could lose coverage in 2028 due to the new rules.
States that have expanded Medicaid eligibility, like Connecticut, are anticipated to be particularly hard hit by enrollment declines.
While Connecticut’s projected enrollment drop of 200,000 people is a worst case scenario, researchers said the state can cut its loss of Medicaid participants in half if it aggressively mitigates the federal changes.
“The Medicaid coverage of several million people will depend on state implementation choices and federal guidance that help ensure that people are not wrongfully denied coverage or disenrolled,” Matthew Buettgens, senior fellow at the Urban Institute, said in a statement.
Mitigation efforts are already underway in Connecticut. They include finding the best way to gather data on people’s work hours and determining medical exceptions to the work requirements.
Connecticut lawmakers are also discussing how – and how much – the state can fill the federal funding gap.
But Katherine Hempstead, senior policy adviser at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, which collaborated on the research, said even in a best-case scenario, work requirements would still cause millions of people to lose their Medicaid coverage.
“Among the most affected will be older adults, the self-employed, and those with physical and mental health conditions,” she said.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
