Connecticut Republicans are facing a political reckoning after Democrats won an overwhelming majority in the state legislature, leaving the GOP with as few as three seats in the state Senate and a diminished presence in the House.
The results went beyond what one veteran political observer expected.
“We all expected the Democrats to pick up seats,” said Mark Pazniokas, Capitol Bureau Chief for The Connecticut Mirror. “I don't believe anybody had on their bingo card that Democrats would win a 33-to-3 majority in the Senate.”
As of Thursday morning, that 33-3 margin has yet to be decided because one race has yet to be called. In Connecticut's 34th State Senate District, election officials are still trying to determine the winner between Republican incumbent Paul Cicarella and Democratic challenger Brandi Mandato.
The district includes Wallingford, where election officials reported a ballot-handling problem that prompted a recount. The outcome could determine whether Democrats finish with a 33-3 or 32-4 majority in the 36-member Connecticut Senate.
The margin is extraordinarily narrow. The CT Mirror reported that Cicarella trailed by approximately 24 votes, with all votes counted, and a recount set for Friday.
Republicans lose longtime legislative figures
Regardless of the final outcome of the recount in Wallingford, the State Senate's current Republican representation promises to be significantly diminished from its current roster of 11 members. And, the GOP Senate losses unseated leaders with decades of experience.
Senate Minority Leader Stephen Harding has conceded to his 30th District opponent, Democrat Aaron Zimmer. Republican John Kissel, who served in the Senate for 34 years, was defeated by Democrat David Kiner in Enfield. State Sen. Heather Somers also lost in Groton.
Pazniokas said the loss of such prominent lawmakers makes the road to recovery for Connecticut Republicans significantly more challenging.
“You lose the building blocks that normally you would rely on to try to get things going again,” he said.
Pazniokas singled out Somers as a particularly significant loss. She has been a moderate Republican who supports abortion rights and reproductive health care,
“She was seen as being ambitious and perhaps taking another shot at higher office,” Pazniokas said.”She has now been sidelined.”
A ‘near extinction event’ for the state GOP
The election results represent a historic low point for Connecticut Republicans. Besides the 29- or 30-seat disadvantage in the Senate, state Republicans seem headed for as much as a 116-35 disadvantage in the House, pending two mandatory recounts.
In the 71st District covering the Danbury area, Republican William Pizzuto holds an unofficial four-vote lead over Democrat Stephen Ferrucci III. In the 62nd District covering Granby, Democrat Kim Becker holds an unofficial 34-vote lead over Republican incumbent Mark Anderson.
Pazniokas called the overall outcome of Tuesday night’s races “a near extinction event” for the Republican Party in Connecticut.
“When you're talking about [potentially] three Republicans out of 36 senators. Again, this has never happened in Connecticut,” he said.
The House result would represent the largest disparity between the parties since the post-Watergate election of 1974, Pazniokas said, when Republicans were reduced to roughly 33 seats.
Republicans face questions about their future
Pazniokas said the national political environment contributed to the performance of Connecticut Republicans this election cycle. Gov. Ned Lamont and other state Democrats characterized the election as a repudiation of President Donald Trump, while also arguing that voters were affirming the direction of state government.
However, Pazniokas said the scale of the losses is likely to prompt criticism of state Republican Party Chairman Ben Proto. In an interview with Connecticut Public on election night, Proto said he intends to finish out his term, which is up in June.
But Pazniokas cautioned that party chairs have limited influence over legislative candidates, who are largely selected by legislative caucus leaders.
The party has not won a statewide election in Connecticut in 20 years, he said, and holds no statewide or congressional offices. Pazniokas said the party now faces basic questions about who will lead its recovery.
“Is it Ryan Fazio as the last gubernatorial nominee?” Pazniokas wondered. “Does he have the standing to pull people together? Does he have the ability? Does he have the interest?”
Pazniokas said Republicans will have to consider whether their approach to candidate selection is limiting their ability to compete.
“They can be pure to their ideals and be a minority for a long, long time, or they can look to have a bigger tent when it comes to who they nominate,” Pazniokas said.
Democratic supermajorities bring new opportunities and risks
Tuesday’s victories expand the Connecticut Democrats' veto-proof majorities. Before the election, Democrats already had 101 House and 24 Senate votes required by the Connecticut Constitution’s two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate mandate to override gubernatorial veto power.
With their expanded majorities, Democrats will have more power to advance their legislative priorities. Republican Gubernatorial candidate Ryan Fazio said he thinks that one-party rule is bad for the state.
“I would argue that the reason Connecticut is so deeply unaffordable and economically stagnant, is because it’s lacked the political competition, so I think Democrats and Republicans across the state should want the Republican party in Connecticut to be strong,” Fazio told Connecticut Public on election night.
Lamont has said the party intends to continue pursuing health care reforms.
Pazniokas said one debate to watch next year will involve proposals to impose greater fees or taxes on companies such as Amazon to help recover the cost of providing health care to their employees.
But the size of the Democratic majorities could also create political risks. “Will the Democrats overreach with these super majorities? Will they do something that turns out to be a catalyst for opposition? These are the unknowns,” Pazniokas said.
